Democratic state Rep. James Talarico now leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in every active poll of Texas’ 2026 Senate race, a milestone Democrats have not reached in a Texas Senate contest since before Lloyd Bentsen last won statewide in 1988. An Emerson College poll conducted Sept. 12-14 found Talarico ahead 47% to 46%, while a Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters taken Sept. 8-10 showed him up by 3 points, with a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points. Earlier surveys told a similar story: an AARP poll of 895 likely voters (Aug. 30-Sept. 1, margin of error 3.3 points) had Talarico up 4; a YouGov/Univision poll of 1,000 registered voters (Aug. 27-Sept. 4, margin of error 3.6 points) showed him ahead by 5; and a Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,000 likely voters (Aug. 21-24, margin of error 3.3 points) put him up 7.
A Race Democrats Weren’t Supposed to Be Competitive In
Paxton became the Republican nominee after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter primary runoff, a result that national Republicans initially welcomed as a way to consolidate the party’s base but that Democrats now argue has made the general election unexpectedly competitive. Paxton spent years fending off an impeachment trial in the state Senate and separate legal controversies before winning the nomination, baggage that Talarico’s campaign has repeatedly highlighted in ads aimed at persuadable suburban and Hispanic voters.
Favorability Numbers Tell a Parallel Story
An August University of Texas poll of 1,218 registered voters found Talarico’s favorability at 48% positive to 42% negative, while Paxton’s stood underwater at 40% positive to 48% negative. Hispanic voters, a critical bloc in a state where they make up nearly 40% of the population, favored Talarico by 15 points, 54% to 39%, according to the same survey. An Overton Insights poll of 1,167 likely voters conducted Aug. 24-26 in partnership with the Texas Public Policy Foundation found a narrower margin, with Talarico ahead by 0.6 points before undecided voters’ leanings were factored in, illustrating that while Talarico leads across pollsters, the size of his edge varies considerably.
Talarico’s Pitch to Rural and Faith-Based Voters
Talarico, a former middle school teacher and seminary student, has built his campaign around a message blending progressive economic policy with explicitly religious language aimed at winning over rural and evangelical voters who have long been out of reach for Texas Democrats. His campaign has organized events in smaller media markets outside Austin, Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth in an attempt to avoid the geographic concentration that has doomed past Democratic statewide campaigns in Texas.
Republicans Urge Caution Despite the Polling
Texas Republican strategists have downplayed the polling, noting that public surveys undercounted Republican turnout in the state in both 2020 and 2022, and that Paxton retains strong support among the party’s base even as his personal favorability lags. Paxton’s campaign has focused on painting Talarico as an ally of the national Democratic agenda on immigration and energy policy, arguing that no matter how close public polls appear, Texas’ fundamentally conservative electorate will assert itself once ballots are counted.
Stakes for the National Map
A Talarico win would be one of the most significant upsets of the 2026 midterms and would immediately reshape assumptions about Texas as a battleground state heading into the next presidential cycle. National Democratic committees have begun increasing investment in the race, while Republicans, wary of a repeat of narrow near-misses in prior Texas Senate contests, are moving additional resources into get-out-the-vote operations in rural counties that Paxton needs to run up margins in to offset Talarico’s suburban and Hispanic-voter gains.
Fundraising Gap Adds to the Uncertainty
Talarico’s campaign has reported outraising Paxton in recent fundraising quarters, drawing on a national network of small-dollar donors energized by the prospect of flipping a Texas Senate seat for the first time in nearly four decades. Paxton’s campaign has leaned more heavily on major donors and national party infrastructure, and Republican strategists argue that traditional Texas turnout advantages in a midterm cycle will ultimately matter more than the fundraising totals both sides have posted so far.
What to Watch Before November
With early voting approaching in October, both campaigns are expected to spend heavily on television and digital advertising in the state’s expensive media markets. Analysts will be watching whether Talarico’s lead holds or narrows as Paxton consolidates the Republican base down the stretch, and whether turnout among Hispanic voters in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley — a region that swung toward Republicans in 2024 — reverts back toward Democrats in a de-nationalized midterm environment.
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