Texas voters will choose between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in November for a Senate seat that opened only after four-term incumbent John Cornyn became the first sitting Texas senator since 1970 to lose his own party’s renomination. The contest, one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country, pits a telegenic 36-year-old former middle school teacher against a scandal-tested statewide official in a state Democrats have not carried in a federal race since 1994.
A GOP Runoff That Ended an Era
Paxton forced the race into a runoff after the March 3 primary, when he took 40.5% of the vote (878,564 ballots) to Cornyn’s 42.0%, with neither candidate clearing the majority threshold needed to avoid a second round. In the May 26 runoff, Paxton routed Cornyn decisively, 63.8% to 36.2%, a margin of more than 27 points that ended Cornyn’s three-decade career in elected office. Much of the runoff turned on loyalty to President Trump, with Paxton casting Cornyn as insufficiently aligned with the party’s current direction while Cornyn attacked Paxton’s character, including long-running allegations of infidelity that Paxton has denied.
Talarico’s Surprise Primary Win
On the Democratic side, Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a nationally known progressive voice, with 52.4% of the primary vote. Talarico, who represents an Austin-area House district, saw his profile surge after a February appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, which his campaign says helped generate roughly $2.5 million in contributions in the days that followed. Political analysts covering the race have described Talarico’s strategy as centered on personal appeal and electability rather than a sharply ideological message, an approach aimed at persuading Texas independents and moderate Republicans skeptical of Paxton.
Money and the Early Fundraising Picture
Federal Election Commission filings from early May, before the runoff, showed Cornyn had raised $13.57 million and spent $10.13 million, leaving $4.08 million on hand, while Paxton had raised $7.6 million and spent $5.26 million, with $2.34 million remaining. Those totals will be reshaped heading into the general election as both parties funnel national resources into a race viewed as pivotal to Senate control, though full general-election fundraising reports were not yet available as of this writing.
Paxton’s Legal Shadow
Paxton’s candidacy carries unresolved baggage from his three terms as attorney general. The Texas House impeached him in 2023 on charges including bribery and abuse of office, though the Texas Senate acquitted him later that year. During the Senate campaign, his office has pursued a wave of lawsuits touching on immigration enforcement, religious institutions, diversity programs, and election administration — actions his supporters frame as aggressive conservative litigation and his critics describe as politically timed. Paxton has not been convicted of a crime related to the impeachment articles.
Issues Beyond the Personalities
Substantively, the primary exposed a rift within Texas Republicans over Cornyn’s support for continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, a legislative pathway for DACA recipients, and his vote for the bipartisan gun-safety law passed after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting — all positions Paxton attacked as too moderate. That internal GOP debate over the party’s direction on foreign policy, immigration, and gun policy is likely to resurface in the general election, even as Paxton and Talarico pivot to contrasting each other directly. Texas Republicans have also pushed to restrict future primaries to registered party members only, a proposal some see as a reaction to crossover voting in recent cycles.
What’s Next
With the general election set for November 3, both national parties are treating the race as a marquee test of whether a Democrat can be competitive in Texas for the first time in a generation, and of whether Paxton’s legal history will prove a liability in a general electorate larger and more moderate than the Republican primary base that nominated him. Talarico’s camp is betting that persuadable voters who rejected Paxton in his past statewide races will do so again; Paxton’s campaign is counting on the state’s continued Republican lean and his standing with the party’s base. Turnout patterns in Texas’s major metro areas, along with any late movement in national Senate map spending, will likely determine whether this becomes the closest Texas Senate race in decades or confirms the state’s recent Republican trajectory.
Photo: Stevensaylor / BY-SA via wikimedia
