Texas enters the fall campaign with a U.S. Senate matchup that would have seemed unthinkable two years ago: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, fresh off ousting a sitting senator in his own primary, facing Democratic state Representative James Talarico in a race both parties are treating as more competitive than Texas Senate contests typically are. The lineup was set only after one of the most dramatic intraparty upsets of the 2026 cycle.
Cornyn Becomes the First Texas Incumbent to Lose Renomination Since 1970
Senator John Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, led the March 3, 2026 Republican primary with 42.0% of the vote (910,382 votes) to Paxton’s 40.5% (878,564), with Representative Wesley Hunt taking 13.5% and forcing a runoff since no candidate cleared a majority. The runoff dynamics shifted decisively on May 19, when President Trump endorsed Paxton and Hunt — who had finished third — threw his own support behind the attorney general the same day. By the May 26 runoff, Paxton routed Cornyn, 63.8% to 36.2% (888,196 votes to 503,438). The defeat made Cornyn the first incumbent Texas senator to lose renomination since Ralph Yarborough in 1970, and the second sitting senator nationally to lose a primary this cycle, after Louisiana’s Bill Cassidy.
A Fundraising Fight Cornyn Nearly Won on Paper
Federal Election Commission filings show that through the primary period Cornyn significantly outraised Paxton — $11.2 million to $5.9 million by mid-February — and continued to outpace him through the runoff, $13.6 million to $7.6 million by early May. Cornyn also entered the runoff with more cash on hand. The financial advantage proved irrelevant once Trump’s endorsement reshaped the contest; Paxton’s backers included Vice President JD Vance, Representatives Eli Crane, Brandon Gill, Ronny Jackson, and Burgess Owens, along with conservative activist Laura Loomer and CPAC. Cornyn, by contrast, drew support from a roster of Texas newspaper editorial boards — including the Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle, and San Antonio Express-News — along with Newt Gingrich and Mike Pompeo, institutional backing that did not translate into primary votes.
Talarico Emerges From a Crowded Democratic Field
On the Democratic side, Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area, defeated Representative Jasmine Crockett in the primary, 52.4% to 46.2%, winning outright without need for a runoff. The two clashed in a January 24, 2026 debate carried by Austin’s KXAN before Crockett ultimately conceded and endorsed Talarico, though she has stopped short of actively campaigning for him. Former Representative Colin Allred, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Ted Cruz, backed Crockett during the primary but has since thrown his support behind Talarico for the general election.
A Viral Moment Translates Into Real Money
Talarico’s single biggest fundraising spike reportedly followed a widely shared appearance on “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” on February 16, 2026, after which his campaign said it brought in roughly $2.5 million in donations in the following days, according to figures tracked by the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project. The moment underscored how Talarico, previously a lower-profile legislator best known in Austin policy circles, has tried to build a grassroots-funded operation capable of competing in a state where statewide Democratic campaigns have historically struggled to keep pace with Republican spending.
Why National Forecasters Are Watching Closely
Paxton enters the general election as a deeply polarizing figure even among Republicans — he survived a 2023 impeachment trial in the state Senate on securities fraud and abuse-of-office allegations, and has faced years of scrutiny over an FBI investigation into his dealings with a political donor. That history is central to Democrats’ theory that Texas, despite its Republican lean, could be in play if Paxton’s controversies depress turnout among moderate and suburban Republicans who backed Cornyn. The Cook Political Report had rated the race a Tossup as of October 6, 2026, an unusually competitive designation for a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
What’s Next
Both campaigns are expected to spend heavily through November 3 on turnout operations in the state’s fast-growing suburban counties around Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin — areas that have trended Democratic in recent cycles even as rural Texas has moved further right. Talarico’s ability to keep pace financially with a well-funded Paxton operation, and whether Paxton’s legal and ethical baggage proves as damaging in a general election as it did in some Republican circles, will likely determine whether Texas becomes one of the cycle’s biggest surprises or reverts to its recent Republican-leaning form.
Photo: archer10 (Dennis) / BY-SA via flickr
