The fight for the Senate runs through the north this year. Susan Collins’s vulnerable seat in Maine and Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid in Ohio have emerged as marquee races in the 2026 battle for control of the chamber. With Democrats needing a net gain of four seats, these contests are central to their path — and among the most closely watched of the cycle.
Collins on the ropes
Maine is a top target. Susan Collins is the only Republican defending a seat in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024, making her widely viewed as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent. Running in a midterm with an unpopular president of her party in office compounds the challenge.
A tight Maine race
The polls are close. Collins faces Democrat Graham Platner in a contest forecasters rate a toss-up, with recent surveys showing Platner narrowly ahead. With ticket-splitting in decline, the political environment poses a serious threat to Collins’s long Senate tenure.
Brown’s Ohio comeback
A heavyweight returns. Sherrod Brown, who won a 2024 Senate race even as Trump carried Ohio, is challenging appointed Republican Jon Husted. Known for connecting with blue-collar voters in Republican-trending territory, Brown’s entry instantly elevated Democratic prospects in the state.
The map and the math
The stakes are clear. With 35 seats up — 22 held by Republicans — Democrats need four net gains to retake the Senate. Maine and North Carolina are their best offensive opportunities, and Ohio is now competitive thanks to Brown, widening the battlefield.
The national climate
The environment favors challengers. With the president’s approval underwater and Democrats leading on the economy, the climate strengthens the party’s chances in tough races. A favorable midterm wind could lift candidates like Platner and Brown over the line.
Why it matters
The Senate shapes the nation’s direction. Control determines confirmations, legislation and checks on executive power, making these northern battlegrounds consequential far beyond their states. Maine and Ohio could help decide which party holds the gavel after November.
The bottom line
Susan Collins’s vulnerable Maine seat and Sherrod Brown’s Ohio comeback headline the 2026 Senate battle, central to Democrats’ bid for the four seats they need. In a favorable climate, these northern races are among the cycle’s most pivotal. The fight for the Senate may be decided in Maine and Ohio.
