Former New Hampshire Sen. John E. Sununu has built a commanding lead over ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the race for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, according to University of New Hampshire Survey Center polling that showed Sununu ahead 56% to 19% among likely GOP primary voters. The contest, triggered by Shaheen’s decision not to seek a fourth term, has become one of the most closely watched open-seat Senate races in the country, with Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas holding a modest edge over Sununu in general-election matchups tested by the same survey.
Shaheen’s Exit Reshapes the Map
Shaheen, 78, announced last year she would not run for re-election, ending a Senate career that began in 2008 when she unseated the same John Sununu now seeking to reclaim the seat. Her retirement immediately reshuffled what had been considered a safely Democratic-leaning contest into a genuine toss-up, since New Hampshire’s presidential-year Democratic lean — Kamala Harris carried the state by 2.8 points in 2024 — depended heavily on Shaheen’s personal incumbency advantage rather than a durable statewide partisan tilt.
A Sununu Political Comeback Bid
Sununu, who served one term in the Senate from 2003 to 2009 before losing to Shaheen, entered the 2026 race framing his bid explicitly as a rematch nearly two decades in the making. He quickly became the Republican frontrunner, drawing on family name recognition in a state where his father and brother have both served as governor, and has since earned Trump’s endorsement, according to reporting from Yahoo News. His rival for the nomination, Scott Brown, brings his own high name recognition as the former Massachusetts senator who later served as U.S. ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa under Trump, but has struggled to gain traction against Sununu’s deeper New Hampshire roots and institutional support.
Pappas Leads the Democratic Field
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, who represents New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, has emerged as the clear frontrunner to succeed his fellow Democrat, embarking on what his campaign has described as a 10-county listening tour of the state to build a general-election coalition. UNH’s polling has consistently shown Pappas leading Sununu in hypothetical general-election matchups, though by margins narrow enough that both parties consider the race highly competitive rather than settled.
A Race Without the Sharpest Edges
Unlike some of the cycle’s more nationalized and ideologically charged Senate contests, WBUR’s reporting on the race describes New Hampshire’s contest as notable for lacking the extremes that have defined other 2026 Senate races, with both leading candidates — Pappas and Sununu — occupying more centrist lanes within their respective parties. That dynamic could make the race turn less on ideological messaging and more on personal biography, retail politics and each candidate’s ability to win over the state’s large bloc of undeclared voters, who can choose either party’s primary ballot.
Why New Hampshire Matters for Senate Control
With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority, New Hampshire is one of the small number of genuinely competitive seats — along with Georgia, Maine and North Carolina — that will determine whether Democrats can erase the GOP’s edge or Republicans can pad it further. Shaheen’s retirement removed one of the few seats Democrats had considered close to guaranteed, and Republicans see Sununu’s name recognition and fundraising base as a rare opportunity to flip a Democratic-held seat that would have otherwise been out of reach.
What’s Next
New Hampshire’s primary is still ahead, and Sununu’s substantial polling lead over Brown will be tested as both campaigns increase advertising spending in the Boston and Manchester media markets that reach New Hampshire voters. Assuming Sununu secures the nomination as polling suggests, expect the general election against Pappas to tighten as national money flows into the state; further UNH and Emerson polling in the coming weeks will show whether Pappas’s current edge holds or whether Sununu’s name recognition and Trump’s endorsement help him close the gap heading into the fall campaign. Republicans see Sununu as a template for winning back Democratic-leaning New England seats through candidates with deep local roots rather than nationalized culture-war messaging, while Democrats view Pappas’s cross-district appeal in a swing House seat as evidence he can hold together the coalition Shaheen built over eighteen years in the Senate.
Photo: jimbowen0306 / BY via flickr
