Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs has combined a record-setting fundraising haul with a fresh polling lead over Republican challenger Andy Biggs, giving Democrats new confidence in a state the GOP has identified as one of its top targets to flip a governorship in 2026. An AARP-commissioned poll released August 6 found Hobbs leading Biggs 52% to 44% among likely voters, an 8-point edge that arrives alongside campaign finance disclosures showing Hobbs has raised nearly $15 million toward her reelection bid.
Breaking Down the Poll
The survey, conducted July 26-28 by Republican pollster Fabrizio Ward and Democratic pollster Impact Research on AARP’s behalf, interviewed 913 likely Arizona voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points. Hobbs led among voters under 50 by 36 points and among Hispanic voters by 25 points, while Biggs held a narrower 9-point edge among voters 50 and older, 53% to 44%. On personal image, Hobbs posted a modestly positive favorability rating of 45% favorable to 41% unfavorable, while Biggs’s numbers ran slightly underwater at 35% favorable to 36% unfavorable.
A Fundraising Record
Hobbs’s campaign says it raised more than $9.4 million in 2025 alone, including $1.8 million in the fourth quarter, pushing her non-election-year total to nearly $5.9 million — the most ever raised in a non-election year by an Arizona gubernatorial candidate, according to figures released by her campaign. In the second quarter of 2026, Hobbs reported $2.6 million raised, more than the combined total of the Republican field, according to the Arizona Mirror. Her campaign emphasizes the small-dollar nature of that support: 95% of contributions were under $100, and 65% of donors were new to her campaign this cycle.
Who Is Andy Biggs
Biggs, a former U.S. representative and past chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, entered the governor’s race after building a national profile as one of Congress’s most conservative members. His campaign has focused on border security and public safety, framing Hobbs as insufficiently tough on immigration enforcement despite the governor’s efforts to position herself as a border hawk during her first term. Biggs and national Republicans have pointed to Arizona’s competitive recent statewide election history — including razor-thin margins in the 2022 governor’s race and multiple contested Senate races — as evidence the state remains winnable for the GOP.
Hobbs’s First-Term Record
Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in 2022 by roughly 17,000 votes, one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country that cycle. Since then, she has clashed repeatedly with the Republican-controlled legislature over budget priorities, water policy and abortion access, using her veto power more than 300 times during her first term — a record her campaign touts as evidence of a check on legislative overreach, and one Republicans cite as proof of obstruction.
The Case for Caution
Despite the favorable numbers, Arizona Republicans and independent analysts note that the state’s electorate has repeatedly produced closer-than-expected results, and that a single midsummer poll — even one with reputable bipartisan pollsters attached — is not a reliable predictor of a November outcome three months away. Biggs’s campaign argues that as voters tune in closer to Election Day and immigration remains a top concern nationally, the race will tighten considerably from its current 8-point spread.
The Running Mate Factor
Both campaigns have also faced scrutiny over their choices for lieutenant governor, a separately elected office in Arizona that can shape ticket balance. Analysts covering the race note that running-mate selections have taken on outsized importance this cycle, as both Hobbs and Biggs look to shore up support with specific constituencies — suburban women and Latino voters for Hobbs, and rural and base conservative voters for Biggs — that could prove decisive in a state that has produced several of the closest statewide election results in the country over the past four years.
National Stakes
Arizona has become a proving ground for both parties’ 2026 midterm strategies, given its status as a genuine presidential swing state with a history of razor-thin statewide margins. Republicans view a Biggs win as a critical building block for the party’s broader Sun Belt strategy heading into 2028, while Democrats see holding the governorship as essential to maintaining a check on the Republican-controlled state legislature on issues from abortion access to election administration. National fundraising committees on both sides have signaled the race will be among their top-tier investments this cycle, alongside other marquee 2026 governor’s races in Georgia, Texas and Michigan.
What’s Next
With Hobbs’s financial advantage giving her the ability to dominate advertising through the fall and Biggs working to consolidate the Republican base after a competitive primary, Arizona’s governor’s race is expected to remain among the most closely watched in the country. Additional polling, including from RealClearPolitics’ aggregated averages and Race to the WH’s forecasting model, will be closely tracked in the coming weeks as both campaigns intensify their outreach to the older, swing-leaning voters both sides agree could decide the race.
